Cartmel 27/5/23 - It's been one week...

No sooner has the dust settled on the Government white paper, which followed hot(ish) on the heels of 6 race cards in summer initiative, we have another new initiative, this time from the BHA in the form of fixture list changes and, of course, premierisation. Which isn't even a word.

Let's start by looking at the BHA's stated aim as per Joe Saumarez Smith;

"The aim is to grow the sport’s reach, appeal to new fans and better engage existing customers with the hope that it will generate extra revenues which will in turn boost prize-money levels."

Honestly, that's a big old sentence with 3 different objectives which, actually, appear to be all exactly the same. No mention of betting there apart from the oblique "generate extra revenues" which I assume is from betting as it sure won't be from increased crowds. At least Harrington had the good grace to mention the "B" word. As an aside, if you're looking for further thoughts on the unmentionable "B" word please check out Simon Nott's excellent piece on the subject.

Firstly I cannot pretend to be objective regarding this as I own a business that is potentially affected by these proposals so, being fair, all of this has to be read through the prism of me being an on course bookmaker.

As we are at Cartmel this weekend I thought it might also be useful to try to have a look at the impact on that particular racecourse across the year though, of course, the same effects can, and will, be applied to dozens of other smaller independent tracks next year.

May Bank Holiday Saturday attendances from 2019 (2022 wasn't a bank holiday weekend and the previous 2 years were Covid affected) Cartmel 12000

Chester 18600

Ffos Las 7700 (evening)

Goodwood 8800

Haydock 7200

Salisbury 3600 (evening)

York 19500

That's about 77500 in total on a Saturday afternoon that are going racing. Fantastic huh? Well, er, apparently not. Only 3 of these 5 daytime meetings will make the cull in the 2pm-4pm slot and the rest will, inevitably, suffer. At least one of them is likely to get the graveyard morning shift- though it's worked so beautifully for dog track attendances you can see why (I don't do emojis on this blog but if I did I'd be going for the "rolling eyes" one). Let me remind you "The aim is to grow the sport’s reach, appeal to new fans and better engage existing customers". I've looked at this from every single angle I can think of and I cannot come up with a single plausible way that shifting meetings that currently get (non Premier League) football level attendances to 10 o'clock in the morning when they'll get one man and his dog will "appeal to new fans" or "better engage existing customers".

There's even been some muttering about the saturation of racing on tv on a Saturday... Yes, I know. So I've done a quick check of ITV's offering this Saturday. They are covering, well, err, 3 UK meetings on Saturday (plus one race from Ireland). So when the cull comes there'll be, err, 3 meetings on terrestrial tv. Spot the difference. Spot the enhanced "premierisation" (still, absolutely, not an actual word) Again, at least Harrington was a bit more up front about why they're doing it.

Finally (in this bit least) the other argument doing the rounds was that a lot of these independent tracks "don't deserve" Saturdays with the standard of racing on offer. There may be some moral argument there but, if these meetings don't exist or are shunted to different times when nobody will attend, will this make any difference to "premier" meetings? I'd suggest it won't. Do these meetings compete for air time on ITV? No. Do these meetings draw crowds away from the "premier" meetings? No. Come on guys, let's at least be honest about it, you want bigger gaps between races so that people will bet more. And you want racing from 10am to 9pm so people will bet more. And, in the long run, receive more money via the levy. Full stop. End of story.

I don't know the sums regarding betting. I really don't. I assume they add up or at least the BHA think they will. But it's not "to grow the sport’s reach, appeal to new fans and better engage existing customers". It's just not.

Right. Part 2. Let's have a look at this from the affected racecourses' points of view. In this case let's look at Cartmel. Cartmel have 3 Saturday meetings (total attendance of just under 43000 across the three in 2019) and none of them will likely qualify for premier status. So let's assume one goes to the morning slot and two go to twilight/evening slots.

Firstly, and obviously, the attendances will be battered. So the course will be worse off, less able to invest in improving facilities, unable to support the same level of staff and potentially affect their long term viability. That's without mentioning the July and August meetings already being reduced to 6 races.

Grange over Sands is rather misnamed. I understand there used to be sands there but there isn't any more. But it is really close to Cartmel. I've had a look at hotels there. You can get them this weekend but they're not cheap. I assume that those 4 racing weekends are the jackpot days for the hotels and restaurants in the area along with the school holidays. Won't be any more. And what about all those sticky toffee puddings that will remain resolutely unsold?

Then there's the other ancillary stuff. The fairground, the concessions in the course, the pubs in the area, the self catering cottages, the restaurants, the local suppliers, the shops, the staff that work in all of those industries and, of course, the on course bookmakers...

And, finally, logistics. 10am start or 9pm finish. Stable staff, jockeys etc coming from all over the country. Though at least they get their Sunday nights off- sorry, what? Not to mention, of course, on course bookmakers (need that smiley emoji thing). Alarms set for times that should only be reserved for 5 year olds on Christmas morning.

And this story will be repeated across the country at track after track, week after week. Some tracks will go to the wall. And some folk will take the moral high ground and say that they "deserve" to because the standard of racing doesn't justify Saturday meetings. Try telling that to the bloke who owns the local restaurant/pub/hotel. Try telling that to the staff that will either be laid off or, in the case of agency workers, just not employed in the first place. Guys, it's not to grow the sport's reach. It's not to appeal to new fans. It's not to better engage existing customers. It's not. It's to increase off course betting. And that might be enough to offset all of the stuff I've just written. It really might. I don't know. But let's not pretend it's something it isn't. There's even an admission from the BHA "The governing body also said talks would take place about how to support racing's workforce in light of the changes" but I doubt the sticky toffee pudding shop will feature highly in those talks.

So, for me, the winners, in the short term, are the off course bookmakers. They will be getting 3-4 extra hours of UK horse racing betting on Saturdays with the clear aim of doing much the same on Sundays. They will also be getting longer gaps between races on Saturdays which is also likely to increase betting turnover. Long term the hope will be that increased betting turnover leads to greater investment in the sport via the levy which should increase prize money, increase field sizes and help keep UK horses in the UK. Presumably the hope from the BHA is that the extra money in the long term will offset the obvious downsides associated with this initiative.

I don't, honestly, see the "premier" meetings receiving a short term benefit. I'd be very surprised if we saw fewer races on tv in order to "tell the story". I'd also be very surprised of "telling the story" was something that the average viewer was particularly interested in anyway. Football and cricket have been quoted as a blueprint for not standing still but there is a fundamental difference between the motivation for watching football and cricket v watching horse racing. Most people who go to a match are emotionally invested in supporting the team they are spectating, most people who watch horse racing are invested in watching the horse they have backed. There are a few exceptions of course but generally speaking there is very little emotional attachment to a particular horse that is the driver for spectating for the vast majority of spectators. Horse racing crowds are referred to as punters for a reason.

The losers are, clearly, the smaller tracks, the ancillary staff and businesses related to these tracks and the punters who attend.

As I say, it's a balancing act; will the extra revenue generated by these proposals offset the downsides to smaller tracks? The see saw is currently balanced in the middle, only time will tell which way it comes down. Or, if you like, who has the heavier bum. Enough of all that, far more importantly, did we make any at Cartmel money today...

It's a little known, but still an undeniable, fact that bookmaker's joints are constructed of razor blades and barbed wire. We didn't have a spectacular year at Cartmel last year and my day started with me, literally, slitting my wrist which didn't bode particularly well for this season either.

1) And the omens got worse in race 1. Only one loser, favourite Moon Dorange, which drifted, shortened and then drifted again on the off. It was under pressure with 3/4 mile to run and Boomslang (small winner) and Artiste Dainay (huge winner) were cruising so it was just a case of which one won. Until Artiste walked through the last instead of jumping and Boomslang tried a few blind alleys which allowed the jolly to hold on in totally unexpected fashion which gave us a losing start, in more CairnBet expected fashion.

2) Merry Poppins the only one in town early in the betting as the money kept coming. Late on course money for Magical Maggie and Pearl of the West meant they were small winners with the other 2 huge and, as it turned out, totally unfeasible jackpots. Maggie beat Pearl and our small win was decimated by a dog's breakfast of a place book and we went west. Small win but poor reward for getting stuck into the beaten jolly.

3) Top 2 in the market for solid liabilities as CairnBet did a normal book. Until you scrolled down to the other loser at the bottom of the market. Another tale of woe for us as favourite, Lights Are Green, made all despite a collosal early blunder and we chalked up another loss, slightly mitigated by standing Big Gangster, Archie Brown and (for all the Leeds fans) Allardyce for plenty in the places and getting them all beat. Steve's an Everton fan. He'll be hoping that's an omen for tomorrow.

4) Upside down book as the big loser was the rag, Vocal Duke, whilst Gold Link was the 0-0 draw. I spent most of the betting trying to get favourite, A Different Kind, in with limited success and that went off a winner for us. It looked the winner too until Al Zaraqaan, which was pulling like a gang of lads at Newcastle Ladies day, defied the wasted energy and an in running price of 30+ to storm through on the run in and get us back into profit. Corner turned?

5) Yes as we had another solid win on Do No Wrong which did, ach even I can't make that gag. We'd have preferred the 2nd, Mister Bells, but still got reasonable reward for decent liabilities on Zumbi (the most obvious book loser of the day) Bolsover Bill and Cenotice. Places were fantastic as we'd stood the same two plus Raecius Felix for chunks and none of them made the frame.

6) And then back to earth with the patented CairnBet choose your liability race of the day as both losers traded at evens with each other for the last mile and we forlornly watched our winners back pedaling. The winner, Go Another One, slightly less bad than Fidux but still a dark shade of "rotten" and we took a big step backwards.

At this point business had been decent and we were lamenting the fact that we were far from cashing in on a busy day. We were winning but a long way worse than par. I remarked to Steve that we needed a jackpot in the last. He merely snorted.

7) Cracking betting heat as connections had a nice early bet with us on Mary Cassatt which guaranteed a liability there and late money for Emily Wade meant that the other 4 were all winners ranging from decent (Bright Sunbird and On We Go) to excellent (Could Be Trouble) culminating in jackpot (Jersey Lady). Jersey Lady led most of the way but was under pressure fairly early. The two bad ones from our point of view were cruising. It looked a long way home for us with only the prospect of a curry and a 6 for 5 deal on IPAs to keep us sane when a miracle occured and Jersey kept finding for pressure and the top 2 in the market noticeably didn't. It's still a long way up that straight when you have a make or break difference on the line but Jersey plugged on, held on and we were mildly euphoric and flabbergasted in equal measure. Having paddled for much of the day we hit a monster in the last and ended up winning far more than ever lucked likely until the last 50 yards in the last race of the day.

Ladies Day at Kelso tomorrow and we have a chap from Beverley coming up to spend the day with us as he's considering dipping his toe in the on course bookmaking world. For 6 and 9/10ths of the racing today I'd have doubted his (and our) wisdom but hope sprang eternal and the world looks rosy again. More bookies than runners tomorrow- the books will be weird and the blog will be short but if you're desperate for how 30 runners in 7 races look tune in tomorrow. Until then...