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Writer's pictureAndy Stallard

Kelso 5/11/22 Born of Frustration

Blogging huh? It's been a while. No realistic fixtures (apart from the last one at Kelso covered by Kev) meant an October trip to the sunnier climes of Italy hence the absence of bookmaking inanity from the Frozen North. We're back now and the first thing we've established is that Venice and Garda are warmer than Kelso...


With our newly "enhanced" extra super high new season liability in place (still only about a third to a half of the liability we run anywhere else) we set off through the monsoon at such an unfeasibly early time that the rest of the family were still in Noo Noo Land when I left. "Good luck" wearily offered up by the wife through the window as the car was started.


Picked up Steve at Kinross. It was his birthday. He wasn't in high spirits, though he was donning a rather funky new pair of gloves specially bought for him by his little guy. Sweet. I enquired what he was planning for today - "probably losing and not being in Lanzarote. And not being with the wife and kids". The trip subsequently passed in silence as far as the Forth Crossing...


It was great to see our friend Allan today- he's a great guy and we always enjoy doing battle. We'll be seeing him again at Newcastle in a few weeks no doubt. There was also a chap who was up from Suffolk who came by to say hello and complement us on our blogs (I didn't catch your name so, if you're reading this, give me a shout via Twitter!) We didn't establish whether he made the 12 hour round trip for the sole purposes of visiting the (non) legendary CairnBet joint but he seemed a sensible chap so we assume he might've been more interested in the racing than the ramblings of an exiled Scouser.


1) In the first we couldn't get the top 2 in the market in which turned out to be in our favour as jolly Salvino beat the unpronounceable 2nd favourite Gaillimh A Stor to give us a solid start enhanced by standing some decent non placed place liabilities as well. For the sake of completeness the bogeys were No But I Will, Something Golden and the Brian Hughes mount Ballyporeen. Non threatened and we were away. Was it to be the curse of the first though?


2) Well, yes it was. Steve observed that they always bet Wheelbarri here and, when it drifted on the off, I observed that more drifters win at Kelso than anywhere else on the planet. We were both right. 10/10 for observation. 10/10 for the workings out. 0/10 for profit. One step backwards.


3) 3 losers- Broadway Joe (another big drift on the off), Breaking the Ice and Avoid De Master. We got them beaten but only by favourite SirWilliamWallace which won us nowt. Dalyotin a shocker in the place book too so a small loss overall. Jackpots with Exit To Where and Up Helly Aa King which both flattered in running only to deceive when it mattered.


4) Race 4 was reserved for the patented CairnBet "Choose Your Liability" Stakes with the 3 losers in the book the only 3 in contention. The least rancid of the 3 (Stoney Rover) won but came to the party with an industrial size place liability in tow and our race 1 profit was finally all gone. Curse of the first well and truly strikes.


5) Race 5 was home to the patented Cairn Bet "Dionne Warwick Heartbreaker" Stakes. Full liability on fav Ned Tanner and jackpots on outsiders Devour, Leostar plus the absolutely smashed up Castletown. Ned was beaten early but Castletown was beaten late by Brayhill which gave us another 0-0 draw. Nice if you're away at Real Madrid in The Champions League, less so when you've beaten the liability early and you're surrounded by big winners.


6) We were 6 quid in front with expenses of £155. Another weekend of frustration at Kelso. I remained optimistic with no real basis for feeling optimistic. We got stuck into the top 2 in the market and finally got our reward when Pavlik prevailed. Lovely place result as well with 2nd and 3rd virtually skinned. Would've preferred the 2nd, Bestiarius, of course but gift horse not looked in mouth. Well, maybe a little.


7) We laid £400 at evens on Kamsinas at about 11 o'clock. We opened 4/7 four and a half hours later. Lot of work to do then... Place market was awful of course but we ended up with a terrific book as the jolly drifted a wee bit and the betting was lively to say the least. This was the one that got away though. One chunky each way bet on the wrong horse is all it takes and that's what it took on the winner Kingston Bridge. We had winners everywhere but our, presumed Glaswegian, punter meant that this one was only a tiddler. In these types of races we desperately need the favourite and/or 2nd favourite to place. Sagebleu was going well (a lovely winner) but stumbled and took out Balcomie Breeze (a really lovely winner and unlaid place) and the jolly which we really, really needed to place. We had a titchy win. Disappointing end.


All in all a wages type day which seemed unlikely after 5 but felt a bit of a sickener after the 7th.


So Kelso still remains an enigma, wrapped in a riddle, all bound up in a bumper sized conundrum. Another meeting where the hedging account was in profit (NOT a good thing). Another meeting where we fell short of the "green up" figure which represents the rough value of the book. It didn't seem like we were caught anywhere obviously but the trend continues. Much pondering to be done but we have, I think, a few options. If you're seriously disinterested in the musings of the bookmaking fraternity (or at least this version of the bookmaking fraternity) please hit the big X in the top right and pursue something more interesting. If you're feeling masochistic please read on.


We consistently have decent books at Kelso and we have a very good pitch there but we are always left feeling we never quite get the most out of it. We have a number of options.


1) As with everywhere else we stand what we lay at Kelso, though to significantly lower liabilities than elsewhere. The only consideration here is liabilities. Do we further increase our liabilities? Our continued hedging profit suggests that this is not the right thing to do but it would reduce the sheer number of horses we end up standing- fewer horses but larger liabilities- impossible to know without trying it. Do we reduce them back down to the miniscule one from last season? Possibly, but the books are messy and filled with a myriad of small losers. Do we keep plodding on with the current liability? Who knows?


2) Do we go with a "standardised" book where we have the top of the market in liability and the rest of the field winners? It certainly would have won us more money yesterday but speaking to one or two books who run this method they tell me that they also underperform at Kelso v elsewhere so that doesn't seem to be the answer either.


3) Green up. Take the profit in the book regardless of who wins. Since we went back into Kelso this would, unquestionably, have been the most profitable route historically. So why not? Because I hate it. All things being equal we think you chuck away 10% - 15% of your profit by greening up via the exchanges. This is due to a combination of commission on winnings on exchanges and the "gaps" in the market between the back and the lay side which means you are on the wrong side of every single exchange bet- and the gaps get bigger the further down the field you go. There is also a liquidity issue- if there isn't enough liquidity you end up going through the prices on the exchanges so, for example, you can often end up backing a 20/1 shot at an average of 14s or laying a 33/1 shot at an average of 50s just to balance your book. Literally pouring money down the drain with every transaction.


So I don't have an answer, I honestly don't. Anyone wanna buy a pitch?


Probably not out again until Fighting Fifth at Newcastle at end of month but outside chance we'll do Kelso on the Thursday before depending on crowd and weather. Until then...

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