Ach, well, the title is slightly misleading as it's not all that chaotic and I still don't really have a theory but I will bang on a bit about short priced favourites so, as Meatloaf didn't say, one out of three ain't bad.
1) So where do we start? Race 1. At the beginning. It's a very good place to begin. What to do with the short ones? You don't take much money on hotpots (outside of Cheltenham) so you don't really have a fully formed book and it is naturally, desperately lopsided. So what are your options?
a) Do what we do in every other race and stand what we take? Mathematically this is 100% the right thing to do. Psychologically, however, you are going to have a one horse book- the favourite will be your only winner- everything else will be losing you your maximum liability. We don't mind favourites running for us when the betting falls that way so I don't have a moral objection to that but the book just feels exposed and if the jolly isn't off you're done. We should do this but we don't- I'm not proud of that.
b) Lay the favourite for squillions on the machine to make it a loser and everything else worth loads. Man, these books look lovely. Little liability, loads of winners. But they are super short for a reason and they usually win. And you can do that at home and save the badge fee. And turning a winner into a loser because it's short doesn't feel right either. So we don't do this either even though the majority of books do. And then tell you that you do it wrong because you don't win a fortune when the shortie loses. I'm slightly more proud that we don't do this than a)
c) Green up. Arrrrggghhh. That can't be right can it?
d) Fudge it. Stick your fingers in your ears and say la la la. This is what we do. Naturally, the short priced one is our biggest winner so we leave it as our biggest winner but we don't stick the others in for much and we'll probably have a liability on the forecasts with the fav so it kind of balances it out. This is still what we do. I think it's probably wrong but, like democratic governments, it's the worst possible option apart from all the others we've tried.
So we won coppers on the 25/1 shot with our fingers in our ears. Yes, we were told we should be cashing in on a 25/1 winner beating a short one and we do it wrong. They might even be right. But we could still do that at home and save the badge fee. Though it must be said we, bizarrely, laid the forecast as well...
2) Back to life, back to reality. Kind of. CairnBet reality anyway. Stuck in Collingham for the max. Thunder Head and Johnny Boom rounded out our losers (nearly max) and could barely lay the smashed up joint fav Inca Prince which was pretty much our best winner. News reached us off a big old bet on Genuflex at the tunnel end of the ring; at the time it was a small winner and so it remained. As it turned out Inca Prince raced incredibly keenly and the sages in the in running market knew it had gone off too fast. Except it hadn't and it won easily despite looking like it couldn't. We had a great result and the places were kind as well. The sun shone in Scotland in March. Surely it was to be our day. Errr...
3) At least we didn't lose the 3rd but the steadily backed winner, The Navigator, was a teeny win. The price looked bookie friendly but the reality was that it was 3rd in, in a 14 runner handicap. We had 3 losers, Byzantine Empire, Iolani and Kensington Art who fell and, sadly, it was to prove fatal. We met the owner shortly after the race and that was a tough conversation- condolences to connections. Interesting conversation with a chap who had a betting slip for £190 each way on 3rd place Byzantine. It was my fault as he only gave us 38 quid off a previous winner. I knew straight away that I had fat finger syndrome but our guy ran like the wind with his bumper ticket so the betting ring manager was called in in his absence in case it won. The horse finished 3rd and I admire the guy's front for trying to cash in his bet. A brief chat later and he admitted that he hadn't given me £380 but still wanted paying out the full amount because I had miskeyed it! Would be interested to see if he miskeyed a tip in a restaurant by a zero or two and stood by it. Clearly if we'd done 19p each way we would've paid him the correct amount and the same goes for £190 each way. We explained that we would pay him based on what he bet and peace broke out and he accepted that this was the right decision and, in fairness, bet with us for the rest of the day after the correct situation was explained. Maybe it was the 2 quid tip I gave him for his trouble.
4) If you're 33/1 please win or don't place. Please. The worst of all worlds for us. We had the winner Goodtimes Badtimes in for our maximum loss for today along with Wynford and a half liability on the ever popular Pammi. Needless to say place were rank. Profit halved in one fell swoop and we were barely covering expenses.
5) An early big bet on Cailin Dearg ensured that would be our big loser. We also stood Blue Hawaii for half. The winning favourite Latino Fling was steadily bet but no lumps to make it a loser so a small win ensued when it duly obliged. Regular books feel free to break out the gin.
6) Man, we couldn't keep them off the smash up Hold On To The Line which was a big loser along with City Derby. Lucinda Russell's Petite Rhapsody was our best winner and was going beautifully and we felt we were turning a corner. Sadly it couldn't find room to switch and, by the time it got out, the favourite had scooted clear. Despite finishing like a train there was too much to do and our collective hearts were broken. Best winner losing to worst loser by a neck was a tough one to take in the circumstances.
7) When your luck's out... Our Laura B was well bet early and would inevitably be our biggest loser. We had a roll up on She's a Steal and Green Oaks Top Cat was our other small loser. Laura was beaten early along with She's a Steal and we liked our jackpot Aighear in running but Green Oaks caught the field out and won tidily and we ended up with a score draw after the places covered the win loss.
This was a bonus meeting for us. We weren't going to attend but the favourable forecast along with better than expected crowd predictions encouraged us to stand. As it turned out the business was decent but it was tough to win regardless of the system. Betting "straight" wasn't gonna do the trick (unless the winner of the first was bet back to a higher amount that was taken in the book which you can do at home) and, as you can see above, standing what you take wasn't likely to throw up a profit either (my colleague next door won nearly £3000 hedging- as always this is not a good thing!) so the likely only winners were pressing the big green button. That'll never happen here. We didn't get minimum wage today but the sun shone and at least we didn't lose. On to Kelso tomorrow with a modest liability and the hope of better things.
Until then...
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