Newcastle 26 February 2022 - The search for results

We were due at Kelso and Musselburgh last weekend. A combination of weather on the Friday (I couldn't get to the end of my road let alone a racetrack 120 miles away) and a low crowd prediction on the Sunday meant that we attended neither. As an aside it seems pretty clear that Musselburgh are looking to expand their weekend offering as the Sunday was a new meeting (and there are a number of others over summer). As is often the case it takes a few years to bed these fixtures in- I think they should be commended for this enterprise and I hope the disappointing crowd will not put them off as I would expect increases as the fixture becomes more established.

As you know, we are trying to cut back hedging to an absolute minimum and I will include my thoughts on how it went at the end of the report. We won't get everything right as it's still a new process for us but I will post the effect we believe it has had over the day v the old system. There will also be external factors we can't ignore which will occasionally change the system- a trainer walking down the line filling in every book won't be ignored, for good or for ill from our perspective, but where we do consider a lower liability I will share to demonstrate either my incredible good judgement or my utter embarrassment when it goes wrong! Either way to occasionally amend the system there has to be a valid reason, not a hunch. Onto racing. With the refurbishment of the Tatts area the main ring itself appears to be more popular for both public and bookmakers. Consequently our pick (12) left us with considerably fewer options than normal so we made the decision to bet in the Colonel Porter (Premier) enclosure. There are positions for 6 bookmakers but our estimate was that there was only likely to be sufficient business for 4. Five turned up in the end and it was good to catch up with our friends Warren and Alan who we'd not seen since pre pandemic. We also ran into new firm J&J (Mark and Sam) and what a lovely pair they are. They will be an asset to the ring and I wish them the best of luck with their venture. The first was the hottest of hotpots- Barrichello was expected to be around 2/7 but when we opened it was nearer a 1/6-1/7 shot. This made forming a book nigh on impossible and we decided to run the forecasts as our "proper" book and the main race almost as an aside. Even with 7 runners the place market was pretty awful from our perspective and we were really looking to get this one behind us. A mistake from the fav 2 out made it interesting but it reasserted and won easing up. A moderate win in the book was offset by a modest loss in the forecasts as the obvious 1-2 obliged and we also had a couple of fine gentlemen in sparkly hats request a "without the favourite" market bet which also went in for them and further snipped away at our profit. At least they can afford new hats. Welcome to the patented Cairn Bet one horse book in the 2nd. We had a big liability on the outsider Black Pirate (traditional layers look away now) modest liabilities on the original top 2 in the market and a virtual skinner in Ar Mest. Our jackpot travelled well throughout and went clear 2 out and the only danger was the favourite Oscar's Leader which was running in snatches. As Ar Mest winged the last going away I'm afraid to say I allowed myself a small celebratory jig as it hit 1/50 in running. I don't believe in luck or karma but I still take full responsibility to my bookmaking fraternity as it paddled the last 100 yards and the jolly got up from somewhere near Hartlepool to nick it on the line. The joint got a resounding kick and I resolved never to pre dance again. We were behind...

I made a bit of a mess of the bet back in the 3rd.We felt we would lay the obvious each way interests, from a punter's perspective, Grannie Annie and So They Say both opening around 9/1 and so it transpired. Grannie was one we were keeping an eye on as it was unraced/unknown and a market move would've been of interest. As it turned out So They Say shortened, Grannie had a brief flirtation and then drifted again and we were comfortable with our position. Hedging is like comedy, all in the timing. We were over liability on both horses and hedged them to liability 30 seconds from the off. Of course we then had a lump right on the off on Fairfield Ferrata which meant the hedges were unnecessary. We were grateful for the big bet, even more so when it lost to the favourite Fonzerelli but the unneeded hedge was a little nag for the rest of the day. We stood them both for decent lumps in the place market as well and were rewarded when neither placed and we had a very nice win with Fonz which was moderately well bet but at 10/11 there wasn't enough to make it a loser. Happy Days (if you're under 40 you might have to Google that. If you're over 40- apologies- I'll get my coat)

Up until now the betting had been moderate but, as you would expect, the Eider attracted a lot of interest. Early betting was for Lake View Lad and we quickly ran up a big liability but nearer the off the money was coming in hand over fist for Win My Wings and History of Fashion- as it turned out these were our 3 losers with plenty of good winners. If I may digress, a lot of books don't really like National Hunt as, generally speaking, it feels harder to win. As a male in his 50s, about half way through the day, I am very, very grateful for a longer race and a 4 miler is always appreciated. So, as I was taking my "comfort break" a great groan came from the stands outside and it was obvious we'd lost a fancied runner and, sure enough, History of Fashion had unseated. With 2 to go it was a 4 horse race, one loser (Wings) a taker (Eclair Surf) and a couple of jackpots. Wings was always going best and head over heart we knew we were probably losing and so it was. Profit from previous race wiped out. Back to square 1 with 3 to go.

The cars streaming out down the drive wasn't an encouraging sight and betting returned to a norm of OK but no better thereafter. Since Day One has an excellent record round Newcastle and was understandably popular. We couldn't get enough for Soft Risk so Day One was the loser along with a smaller liability for Minella Plus. As they passed with a circuit to go we felt that the front runner had an easy lead and nothing took it on. We weren't hopeful and even though Soft Risk closed in, it never looked like getting there and another loser was chalked up in the book.

In the penultimate the early money was for Debece (cue much singing of Pixies classic throughout) and also for Fire Away and trainer Laura Morgan, the scourge of the Musselburgh bookmakers the previous week. The stable was in great form and it was the only runner they had. It didn't look an obvious one on the face of it but certainly merited a closer look especially if the price collapsed. As it turned out the price was steady and there was no concern at our end so we stood it. Late money for fav Do Your Job including a lump on the off. This time the last bet went against us and Do Your Job obliged despite running in snatches and making a couple of mistakes. The 2nd was a good winner for us but we knew it needed to wing the last to have a chance and the jolly outjumped it and our goose was cooked. On to the Lucky Last. Hungry Tiger was the original favourite and steadily popular throughout. Tommaso garnered late support and they went off as our losers, albeit Tommaso only for a small amount. Tiger was comfortable throughout and another losing race for the good guys (!)

All in all a tough day and a losing day. It's a 7 hour round trip for us and a 14 hour shift coming home with less than we started with is never fun but it's part of the job and there'll be better days, hopefully starting at Kelso next week.

Quick hedge update. We felt it would probably have been a bigger losing day with more hedging. We stood several for chunky amounts which lost which we would not have done previously and the races we did lose on we were around our original liability naturally anyway. The first was a betting non event and I made a dog's breakfast of the 3rd but other than that the books were virtually untouched bar a couple of tenners on Lake View Lad and Fire Away. Finally, in a general sense, there is a pretty widely held view that standing what you take means having the favourites running for you. It's simply not the case as was evidenced yesterday. In fact a couple of people remarked to us that they were "our sort of results". They weren't. If they bet the favourites, they're losers and if they don't they're winners. Yesterday they bet them and we lost. The system relies on the money saved by not hedging (around 4-5%) is greater than the money lost to shrewd money in the ring and the indications from the last 6 years is that it does. We'll continue to see. On to Kelso where the safety car is back out and the stabilisers on which makes for a less exciting day but we shall be there nonetheless. With our Mick Walsh pen. Until then, may all your bets be winners but not necessarily with us!