The sun shone on the righteous. And everyone else.
Hopes were high for a busy day and Kev's whiteboard made an optimistic appearance to rustle up interest in the Highland National. It didn't. And it wasn't busy either. This is usually a cracking meeting but it just wasn't the case today. Why? Not sure. Possibly a combination of the cost of living squeeze and a later emergence from Covid restrictions up here- I'm guessing but certainly compared to the meetings we have done in Newcastle the Scottish meetings so far have been a disappointment.
We have family up for the weekend, I'm tired and our delightful 10 year old is coming down from a late night last night, which is as good as it sounds, so we'll crack on.
1) Regular readers will know we've been struggling with the short ones but today, blinking in the sunlight, we made our first tentative steps towards getting these events a bit nearer our usual strategy. Consequently we had half liabilities on Fleurman, Sanosuke and Laffite which made the odds on shot a decent winner for us and it duly, comfortably, obliged. The forecast was a small loser but places were kind so a good start for us. We don't lay on the machine and these types of races will continue to throw up this type of book. Appreciate this will give palpitations to straight up books!
2) Another short one and this time we stood the 2nd favourite, Parisencore, for the max and it always looked the winner. We didn't lay the forecast which halved the loss but we were on the opposite side of the coin from the first and we have to take it on the chin, which we do and did.
3) This was as near to a straight up book as we're likely to see with 3 of the top 4 in the market put in for the max (Amateur, Poppa Poutine and Ladronne who was popular with the lads from the golf club). Obviously this wasn't a normal CairnBet position so I'm delighted to report we also had 16/1 shot I See You Well in for the max just to add a bit of down the market spice with Oscar Robertson in the middle of the betting rounding out the losers, though only for coppers. We got our reward with the 10/1 winner Slipway who we barely laid and we were ecstatic. For now...
4) The first, and not the last, one horse book. We had Into Overdrive in for the max, takers in the middle and jackpots on the smashed up 2nd favourite If Not For Dylan and the 2 outsiders. Dylan took the smashed up analogy too literally, was an early faller and the outsiders were never in it so the best we could do was a nil-nil draw. Didn't get that either. The max loss was softened by world class each way dodgeball which halved the loss, if not the pain.
5) "A book, we've got a 1 horse book, we've got a 1 horse book, we've got a 1 horse book" (insert the Steve Bruce big head tune here) and so we did. And, yes, I did sing it. The whole of the back line stuck their head in our screen for some ritual head shaking as Marown was a massive, massive, massive jackpot. Smoking Gun was a max loss, Minella Trump a half max loss and Guy and Amalfi Doug were a CairnBet statistical irrelevance. Smoking Gun was beaten early but Minella won easily and another loss was chalked up.
6) Steve has control of the book. We have our system but, ultimately, he has control of the book. If I stick my head in and we have 5 losers in a 6 horse race and 1 winning us enough to buy a small country I don't ask why. Well, I might ask out of interest, but I never question it- it's Steve call. Kev gets them in on the front like no other. He cries like a baby at the merest suggestion of a grazed toe but, my goodness, he's good with the punters. I choose where we stand. I knock up a few spreadsheets. And I'm the pretty one.
Generally we don't hedge back to opinion (though if Steve likes one or two we may not be competitively priced on it) but occasionally Steve decides we ain't gonna lay one for love nor money. We took stacks on Petite Rhapsody but we weren't gonna stand it. Steve was right. We dodged a bullet and he earned his money. We didn't win on the race after rancid, rancid places but we really should've lost. Big.
Going back a few years - PK (pre Kev) when we were green and rubbish we went through a 2nd guess phase. Steve wondered why the hell I was stood on the lawn at Musselburgh when clearly they were taking millions in the ring and was vocal about it. I wondered why the hell we were standing X horse that won and not Y horse that lost. We both very quickly realised I wasn't trying to stand in the worst possible place and Steve wasn't trying to lose. We've never looked back.
7) Plop. Plop, plop, plop. We stood the favourite for plenty. It drifted on the off. We had the most beautiful book. Monster jackpots everywhere including Barnards Green which hit about 3s on in running. We got battered when it won, along with everyone else in the ring. At least we stood the right ones in the place market. Talking of place markets... and so we go full circle to the title of the blog. What does every bookmaker want in the final race on a Friday night when smarting from a slew of favourites? Yep, we want the 2nd favourite out, a 25p rule 4 deduction and a change in the place terms.
We don't want withdrawals, especially at the top of the market. It's never in our favour. NEVER. Apologies for the unacceptable capitalisation but, honestly, withdrawals near the top of the market are horrific for bookmakers. It's nearly always worse financially and it's always worse because you have to patiently explain that you are getting a 25p deduction but, in all likelihood, it's on a horse that's chances of winning have increased by a lot more than the value of the deduction. In this case you also have to patiently explain why you're not getting a place return on the 3rd horse as we'd gone from 8 runners to 7.
We explained this to each and every customer. And, in fairness, they all understood and accepted it, apart from one. But, my, he was a stoater. The full repertoire of bookmaker abuse came out from doubting our parentage, to accusing us of theft, to begging for his tenner (which wasn't his tenner) and finally reverting to telling us exactly how many tens of thousands of pounds we'd won that day. I made the mistake of attempting to use "facts" and "reason", I told him that the 25p rule 4 had been officially announced over the tannoy and even pointed out that we'd just run into 4 favourites and we'd be lucky to make minimum wage. I got a jab in the chest, twice. I was tempted to give him a tenner just to avoid the grief but I'd have felt dirty so I didn't.
TLDR? We were miles ahead then we lost most of it.
We might go to Musselburgh next week but we probably won't as I doubt it'll be workable. If we do I'll blog. If we don't I might blog about The Blue Aeroplanes. And call it "Jacket Hangs". So pray that we go to Musselburgh. Until then...
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